Understanding Probability in Video Poker

Video poker is an awesome gambling opportunity on so many fronts.  It has a low edge, high average payout rate and in some cases, extra ways to win.  Learn how to play the game perfectly and you can manipulate the odds and maximise the returns.  The trick to leveraging video poker at our mobile casino South Africa is to understand the probabilities that determine the odds... and adapt your play accordingly! 

What is Probability? 

In simple terms probability is the statistical measure of the likelihood of an event or outcome actually occurring.  The higher the probability the more likely it is an event will happen.  In terms of the games you can play at Springbok Online Casino, probability is expressed in the odds.  The odds are effectively the ratio of the unfavourable possibilities over the favourable ones.  

The easiest way to illustrate the role of probability in determining the odds is by way of an example.  Take an ordinary coin toss where you have a 50/50 chance of getting either heads or tails.  In this case the probability of getting one or other of the outcomes is 1 in 2 and the odds are expressed as even money at 1:1.

Several Variables in Playing Cards 

When it comes to video poker, calculating probability is obviously more complex as there are multiple variables in a deck of playing cards.  In simple terms, you have a 1 in 52 chance of being dealt a specific card, a 1 in 4 chance of getting a spade, diamond, heart or club and a 1 in 13 chance of getting a card of a particular rank.  

When it comes to the possibility of creating paying poker hands, however, it is not as straightforward as calculating the likelihood of hitting just one card or an individual suit.  You have to achieve the correct combination of cards… and that means the prospect of that in fact happening is much, much lower. 

Video Poker: Probability and Payouts at Springbok Mobile Casino South Africa 

What is the likelihood of achieving the high paying hands like a royal flush, straight flush and four of a kind at our mobile casino South Africa?  According to the statisticians, there is a 1 in 649,740 chance of hitting a royal flush, a 1 in 72,193 chance of creating a straight flush and a 1 in 4,165 chance of making four of a kind.  

That means you have to play an average of around 650,000 hands of video poker online to be in with a shot of scooping up the major money prize paid out for a royal flush.  As the emphasis here is on the word ‘average’, there is obviously a chance that you will hit one or more of the big paying poker hands long before the average hand count.  The theoretical probability of that happening however is obviously not very high at all.

Jacks or Better: Probability and Odds

How easy is it to break the bank when you play video poker at Springbok Mobile Casino South Africa?  Well according to the figures, not that easy at all!  Here is a breakdown of the statistical probability of hitting the paying poker hands in Jacks or Better, together with the corresponding odds posted on the pay table:

Statistics may be the purest reflection of probability but they do not always provide the full picture.  As a player with limited time on your hands, you probably want to know what the prospects are of landing a few paying poker hands in a three- to four-hour gambling session right here at Springbok Mobile Casino South Africa.  

Well when you break down the number of hands you can play in an hour, the highest single payout you can hope for is 25 to 1 for four of a kind.  In order to bag a royal flush or straight flush you would literally have to play solidly over several days to generate the average number of hands theoretically associated with a win.

Chase Down the Frequently Occurring Poker Hands 

What are the hands that are most likely to crop up frequently over a four-hour session?  The ones with the lowest payout odds like a pair of jacks or better, two pair and three of kind have a frequency rate of around 515, 310 and 179 respectively over a four-hour spree at Springbok Online Casino. 

What that of course means is you can extend your gambling sessions, preserve your bankroll and have a lot more fun when you tailor your strategy to focus on drawing the cards required to create the more achievable poker hand rankings.  Who knows, you may even end up with a betting balance that is firmly in positive territory. 

Having said that, it is important to note that we are not implying you should bypass the Jacks or Better video poker strategy.  We are merely suggesting that chasing the card combinations with the highest probability of occurring is arguably a better tactic than hoping against hope for that one elusive big win.

Sign Up at Springbok Mobile Casino South Africa and Put Us to the Test 

The only way to assess the efficacy of these tactics is to play Jacks or Better video poker at an online casino.  At Springbok Casino we not only offer Jacks or Better in the single- and multi-hand modes, we have created the conditions where you can play the game for free.  

Aside from our welcome bonus, there is a R250 no deposit bonus that you can use to fund the wagers on any of our RTG online casino games.  Why not sign up at the number one mobile casino South Africa, redeem the free bonus and hit the video poker button… the odds of winning a little something-something are clearly in your favour!